Affichage des archives de jeudi, 12 avril 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Apr 12 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 103 publié à 2200Z le 12 Apr 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1455 (N06W05) has been the most active region
producing multiple B-class x-ray events. Region 1455 has shown rapid
growth in area and magnetic complexity, now a D-type beta group. New
Region 1456 (S20W19) was numbered today. Multiple CMEs were observed
during the period but none appear to be Earth directed.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class activity for the next
three days (13 - 15 April) as Regions 1455 and 1456 continue to grow
and evolve.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels over the
past 24 hours. Characteristics of an anticipated high speed solar
wind stream from a coronal hole were observed by the ACE spacecraft,
with subsequent elevated geomagnetic levels here at Earth.
Measurements from the ACE spacecraft showed an increase in solar
wind speeds from around 370 km/s to around 600 km/s with the total
IMF hovering around 12 nT.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with the chance for
minor storm periods on day one (13 April) as the effects of a
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) continue. Quiet to unsettled
levels with a chance for active periods are expected on day two (14
April) as the effects of the CH HSS wane. Predominantly quiet levels
are expected on day three (15 April) as the geomagnetic field
returns to nominal levels.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 13 Apr au 15 Apr
| Classe M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 12 Apr 095 Prévisionnel 13 Apr-15 Apr 095/095/095 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 12 Apr 114
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 11 Apr 005/004 Estimé Afr/Ap 12 Apr 009/010 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 013/018-010/010-009/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 13 Apr au 15 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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