Affichage des archives de samedi, 17 mars 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Mar 17 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 077 publié à 2200Z le 17 Mar 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1435 (S26W37)
grew rapidly overnight ending the period as a Dro type group with
beta magnetic characteristics. Nearby Region 1434 (S22W27) produced
an impulsive M1/Sf flare at 17/2039Z. This flare was accompanied
by a Type II radio sweep (1140 km/s). A northward directed wave was
visible in SDO/AIA 193 imagery. Region 1432 (N14W39), currently a
Cro type group with beta magnetic characteristics, produced a C1
flare at 17/0312, but was generally quiet overnight. New Region
1437 (S34E15) was numbered today. It and the remaining regions were
small, magnetically simple, and stable.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare all three days (18-20
March), particularly from the vicinity of Regions 1434 and 1435.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels with
isolated minor to major storm levels observed at high latitudes.
This activity was in response to the continued presence of a high
speed solar wind stream. Solar wind speed, measured at the ACE
spacecraft, remained around 650 km/s while Bz ranged between +5 and
-5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to begin at unsettled levels and increase to active to
isolated minor storm levels on Day 1 (18 March) as a CME from 15
March arrives. Activity levels are expected to be predominantly
active on Day 2 (19 March), declining to unsettled levels on Day 3
(20 March) as effects from the CME subside. Analysis of the M1/Sf
flare is ongoing to determine if it was associated with an
Earth-directed CME.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 18 Mar au 20 Mar
| Classe M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 17 Mar 102 Prévisionnel 18 Mar-20 Mar 100/100/105 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 17 Mar 124
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 16 Mar 017/021 Estimé Afr/Ap 17 Mar 013/016 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 018/025-015/020-008/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 18 Mar au 20 Mar
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 30% | 05% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 35% | 25% | 05% |
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