Affichage des archives de jeudi, 15 mars 2012
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2012 Mar 15 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 075 publié à 2200Z le 15 Mar 2012IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 14-2100Z au 15-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1432 (N14W14)
produced an M1/1f event at 0752Z associated with a Type II radio
sweep (estimated velocity 468 km/s) and a CME visible on STEREO
Ahead and Behind. The geoeffectiveness of this CME is under review.
Region 1432 has grown into an Esi type spot group with beta-gamma
magnetic characteristics. New Region 1435 (S25W11) was numbered.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low to moderate levels for the next three days with a slight
chance for an isolated X-class flare from Region 1432.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 14-2100Z au 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels reaching up
to severe storm levels at high latitudes. A sudden impulse was
observed at 15/1309Z (27 nT, as measured by the Boulder
magnetometer). ACE data indicated a shock arrival at 15/1240Z.
Solar wind velocities increased to around 800 km/s following the
shock. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 13/1810Z
reached a maximum flux of 469 pfu at 13/2045Z and ended at 15/0620Z.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels and up to minor storm
levels at high latitudes on 16 March due to the 13 March CME effects
and the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS). Activity is expected to decline to quiet to unsettled
conditions on 17 March and continue declining to mostly quiet
conditions on 18 March as CME and CH HSS effects subside.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 16 Mar au 18 Mar
| Classe M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 15 Mar 111 Prévisionnel 16 Mar-18 Mar 110/105/105 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 15 Mar 125
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 14 Mar 006/008 Estimé Afr/Ap 15 Mar 021/029 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 015/020-018/010-005/005
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 16 Mar au 18 Mar
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 10% | 10% |
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