Affichage des archives de vendredi, 1 septembre 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Sep 01 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 245 publié à 2200Z le 01 SEP 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 31-2100Z au 01-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 9140 (N11W67) PRODUCED
TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT, A C9/1N AT 1820Z WHICH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A
TYPE II SWEEP. AN ASSOCIATED CME WAS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
LIMB IN THE LASCO C2 FIELD OF VIEW, BEGINNING AT 1854Z. REGION 9140
APPEARS TO BE DECLINING. REGION 9143 (S18W32) ALSO SEEMS TO BE ON
THE DECLINE, BUT DID MANAGE TO PRODUCE A C1/SF AT 0606Z. REGION 9149
(N14E18), THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK, CONTINUES TO GROW SLOWLY,
BUT REMAINS VERY STABLE. TWO NEW, SMALL ACTIVE REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS: 9153 (S33E16) AND 9154 (S21E44).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY LOW, BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT-TO-FAIR CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THE ENHANCED ACTIVITY
LEVELS CONTINUE AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE ONGOING, BUT WEAKENING
HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE SOLAR WIND STREAM. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX LEVELS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE CONTINUE TO BE HIGH.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIOD. MOSTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 02 SEP au 04 SEP
| Classe M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 01 SEP 158 Prévisionnel 02 SEP-04 SEP 155/155/155 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 01 SEP 181
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 AUG 012/015 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 SEP 015/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 SEP-04 SEP 012/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 02 SEP au 04 SEP
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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