Affichage des archives de samedi, 5 août 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Aug 05 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 218 publié à 2200Z le 05 AUG 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 04-2100Z au 05-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY TWO LOW C-CLASS EVENTS
OCCURRED - AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1 FLARE AT 05/0433Z AND A
C1/SF AT 05/0140Z FROM DEVELOPING REGION 9110 (S19W07). MINOR GROWTH
WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN REGIONS 9114 (N12E41) AND 9115 (N16E56), BOTH
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SMALL FLARES AND BRIGHTENINGS. NEW REGIONS 9117
(S09W07), 9118 (N18W02), AND 9119 (S13E08) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. OCCASIONAL LOW C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. A SINGLE
PERIOD OF MAJOR STORMING, MOSTLY AT HIGH LATITUDES, OCCURRED BETWEEN
05/06 - 09Z. THE PERIOD BEGAN WITH QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS,
BUT BY 05/06Z, SOLAR WIND SPEED BEGAN TO INCREASE, REACHING 600KM/S
BY AROUND 05/10Z. BZ SUSTAINED EXTENDED PERIODS OF NEAR -10NT.
AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY FOR CERTAIN THE ORIGIN OF THE
DISTURBANCE, BUT IT MAY BE FROM HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE FLOW,
PRECEDED BY A SUBSTANTIAL CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS THROUGH DAY ONE WHILE THE
PRESENT DISTURBANCE SUBSIDES. ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIODS AT HIGH
LATITUDES ARE LIKELY. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 06 AUG au 08 AUG
| Classe M | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 05 AUG 159 Prévisionnel 06 AUG-08 AUG 165/170/175 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 05 AUG 190
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 AUG 013/018 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 AUG 023/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 AUG-08 AUG 015/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 06 AUG au 08 AUG
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 55% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 05% | 01% |
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