Affichage des archives de jeudi, 28 septembre 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Sep 28 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 272 publié à 2200Z le 28 SEP 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW MINOR C-CLASS
EVENTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. WHILE STILL A LARGE SUNSPOT
GROUP, REGION 9169 (N12W58) HAS DECAYED FURTHER AND NOW MEASURES
APPROXIMATELY 790 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA WITH 51 SPOTS.
REGION 9170 (S06W63) HAS ALSO SHOWN SOME DECAY SINCE YESTERDAY.
SLIGHT GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 9173 (S12E25), AND THE REGION
HAS PRODUCED A COUPLE OF MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS. NEW REGION 9178
(S23E63) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. THERE REMAINS
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. TWO PERIODS OF ISOLATED
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED. CHARACTERISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS ARE
NOW NEGLIGIBLE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT WERE AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 29 SEP au 01 OCT
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 28 SEP 202 Prévisionnel 29 SEP-01 OCT 195/190/180 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 28 SEP 182
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 SEP 008/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 SEP 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 SEP-01 OCT 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 29 SEP au 01 OCT
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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