Affichage des archives de mercredi, 27 septembre 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Sep 27 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 271 publié à 2200Z le 27 SEP 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 26-2100Z au 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD
WAS A C9/1N EVENT FROM REGION 9167 (N14W69). NUMEROUS MINOR C-CLASS
FLARES WERE OBSERVED FROM SEVERAL OTHER REGIONS, SUCH AS 9169
(N12W47), 9173 (S13E38) AND NEW REGION 9176 (S10E68). SEVERAL OF
THE MINOR C-CLASS WERE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. REGION 9169 SHOWED
NO FURTHER DECAY SINCE YESTERDAY. THE REGION NOW HAS A BETA GAMMA
MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. REGION 9170 (S06W51) SHOWED SLIGHT GROWTH
DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO NOW HAS A BETA GAMMA CONFIGURATION. NEW
REGIONS 9176, AND 9177 (N28E01) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. CONTINUED MINOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. REGIONS
9169 AND 9170 ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENT. HOWEVER, NEW REGION 9176 NEAR THE EAST LIMB MAY ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE AFFECTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING. THE SOLAR WIND SPEED, NEAR 600 KM/S YESTERDAY, IS
SLOWLY DECREASING AND IS CURRENTLY AVERAGING 500 - 550 KM/S. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT HIGH
LEVELS.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS POSSIBLE ON THE FIRST DAY.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 28 SEP au 30 SEP
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 27 SEP 205 Prévisionnel 28 SEP-30 SEP 205/200/195 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 27 SEP 181
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 SEP 017/021 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 SEP 012/013 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 SEP-30 SEP 012/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 28 SEP au 30 SEP
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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