Affichage des archives de jeudi, 31 août 2000
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2000 Aug 31 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 244 publié à 2200Z le 31 AUG 2000IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 30-2100Z au 31-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 9143 (S18W20) PRODUCED
TODAY'S LARGEST EVENT, A C1/SF AT 0656Z. THIS GROUP HAS SHOWN SLIGHT
DECAY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 9149 (N12E32) CONTINUES TO BE
THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT WAS STABLE AND QUIET. NEW REGIONS
9150 (N11E51), 9151 (N05E42), AND 9152 (N17E75) ARE SMALL, STABLE
GROUPS THAT WERE ASSIGNED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT-TO-FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENT DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A HIGH-SPEED
CORONAL HOLE STREAM. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT EXCEEDED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS EFFECTS FROM THE CORONAL HOLE STREAM ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 01 SEP au 03 SEP
| Classe M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 31 AUG 163 Prévisionnel 01 SEP-03 SEP 165/163/161 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 31 AUG 181
V. Indice géomagnetique A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 AUG 012/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 AUG 015/016 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 SEP-03 SEP 015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 01 SEP au 03 SEP
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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