Vaata laupäev, 9 juuni 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jun 09 2245 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 161 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 09 Jun 2012 :::::::::Corrected Copy:::::::::::IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1499 (N16W31) was
the most active region producing two M-class x-ray events. The first
event was an impulsive M1 flare at 09/1132Z and the second was also
an impulsive M1/Sf event which occurred at 09/1645Z. Region 1499
also produced several C1 events at 09/0308Z, 1032Z, and 1527Z.
Region 1499 was classified as a Cao type group with beta-gamma
magnetic characteristics. New Region 1504 (S18E67) was numbered
today and classified as a Cao type group with beta magnetic
characteristics. New Region 1505(S09E63) was also numbered today and
classified as a Axx type group with alpha magnetic characteristics.
There were no earth-directed CMEs observed during the period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to remain
low with an increasing chance for occasional M-class activity for
the next three days (10-12 June).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet. A weak disturbance
was observed on both ground and GOES magnetometers at 09/1841Z
leading to the single unsettled period of the day. Solar wind speed
at the ACE spacecraft continued to decline and ended the period near
440 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magentic field
remained mostly neutral or positive. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (10-12
June) with the anticiapted glancing blows from CMEs on 06 June and
08 June and the arrival on 11 June of a coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 10 Junkuni 12 Jun
| Klass M | 45% | 50% | 55% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 09 Jun 128 Prognoositud 10 Jun-12 Jun 130/130/130 90 päeva keskmine 09 Jun 117
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 08 Jun 009/009 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 09 Jun 006/007 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 007/010-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 10 Jun kuni 12 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
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