Kosmoseilma ennustuse alane diskusioon

Välja antud: 2024 Sep 14 1230 UTC
Koostanud Ameerika Ühendriikide kaubandusosakond, NOAA, kosmoseilma prognoosikeskus (SWPC) ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-i poolt

Päikese aktiivsus

24 h summaarne

Solar activity remained at high levels due to multiple M-class flares. Region 3825 (S18E48, Dac/beta-gamma-delta) produced a M1.2 flare at 13/1508 UTC, a M1.4 flare at 13/1756 UTC, a M1.1 flare at 13/2049 UTC, and a M3.0 flare at 14/0741 UTC. Region 3814 (N16W56, Hsx/alpha) exhibited decay while Region 3822 (N15W45, Dri/beta) grew slightly as its trailing spots underwent some consolidation. Region 3824 (S05W13, Dsi/beta) grew in overall length as it developed a few intermediate spots, but remained relatively quiet. Other notable activity included a long duration M1.0 flare from just beyond the southwest limb that peaked at 14/0431 UTC. A CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 13/1310 UTC moving to the NW. This CME was analyzed and suggested a possible glancing blow at Earth near midday on 16 Sep.

Ennustus

Solar activity is likely to be at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels on 14-16 Sep as the majority of the active regions continue to decay.

Energeetilised osakesed

24 h summaarne

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, observing a peak flux of 1,140 pfu at 13/1645 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued to be slightly elevated though well below the warning threshold.

Ennustus

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels, with a chance for high values, through 15-16 Sep. There is a slight chance for the 10 MeV proton flux to reach the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm level on 14-16 Sep.

Päikese tuul

24 h summaarne

Solar wind parameters were indicative of diminishing CME effects. Total field decreased to an average near 8 nT, and the Bz component underwent a few southward deflections of -6 to -10 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased over the course of the period, ending near 450 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive while undergoing several excursions into a negative solar sector.

Ennustus

On 14 Sep, the possible arrival of the 11 Sep CME combined with the potential onset of the negative polarity CH HSS will likely cause enhancements in the solar wind environment. Additional enhancements are likely on 16 Sep as the 13 Sep CME combined with the onset of the positive polarity CH HSS, are anticipated to further increase enhancements in the solar wind environment.

Georuum

24 h summaarne

The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) storm levels due to persistent, yet diminishing, CME influences.

Ennustus

Active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected on 14 Sep with the possible glancing influence from the 11 Sep CME, combined with possible negative polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 15 Sep due to lingering -CH HSS influences. By 16 Sep, combined influences from the 13 Sep CME and a positive polarity CH HSS are likely to increase conditions to G1 (Minor) storm levels again.