Kosmoseilma ennustuse alane diskusioon

Välja antud: 2024 Apr 13 0030 UTC
Koostanud Ameerika Ühendriikide kaubandusosakond, NOAA, kosmoseilma prognoosikeskus (SWPC) ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-i poolt

Päikese aktiivsus

24 h summaarne
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was an impulsive C8.9 at 12/1755 UTC from a Region just beyond the SE limb near S10. Slight growth was observed in Regions 3633 (S08W10, Cso/beta) and 3634 (N26W05, Dsi/beta). The rest of the spotted regions were either stable or in decay. The faint, halo CME from a filament eruption near S16W20 at 12/0020 UTC was analyzed with an arrival time late on 14 Apr.
Ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 13-15 Apr.

Energeetilised osakesed

24 h summaarne
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
Ennustus
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 15 Apr.

Päikese tuul

24 h summaarne
Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels. Solar wind speed ranged from 389-473 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive.
Ennustus
A weakly enhanced solar wind environment is expected on 13 Apr due to CH HSS influences. Solar wind conditions are expected to become further enhanced on 14 Apr, through midday 15 Apr, due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs from 11 and 12 Apr in addition to continued CH HSS influences.

Georuum

24 h summaarne
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
Ennustus
Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 13 Apr due to CH HSS influences. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely on 14 Apr, followed by periods of active conditions on 15 Apr, due to the arrival and passage of CMEs from 11 and 12 Apr and CH HSS influences.

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