Vaata pühapäev, 10 juuni 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jun 10 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 162 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 10 Jun 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1504 (S18E51)
produced an M1 flare at 10/0645Z and grew to end the period as a Dac
type group with a beta magnetic configuration. New Regions 1506
(N11E66) and 1507 (S26E29) were numbered today and classified as Cao
and Dao type groups, respectively, with beta type magnetic
configurations. The remaining regions were generally stable.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to range
from low to moderate. An isolated M-class event is likely from
Region 1504.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was generally at quiet levels. Wind speed at
the ACE spacecraft was approximately 440 km/s through the period.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between
+/-4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to range from quiet to unsettled levels for the next
three days (11-13 June) with a chance for an isolated active period
on the first two days. A weak coronal hole high speed stream is
expected on day one (11 June) and a glancing blow from the 08 June
CME is expected on day 2 (12 June). Day three will see a return to
mostly quiet conditions.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 11 Junkuni 13 Jun
| Klass M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 10 Jun 128 Prognoositud 11 Jun-13 Jun 130/130/130 90 päeva keskmine 10 Jun 117
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 09 Jun 009/010 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 10 Jun 005/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 11 Jun kuni 13 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
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