Vaata pühapäev, 13 mai 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 May 13 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 134 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 13 May 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1476 (N09W33) continues to be the most dominant region
on the disk with an area of 840 millionths and is magnetically
classified as beta-gamma-delta. However, Region 1476 is currently in
a decay phase and only producing C-class x-ray events. Region 1479
(N15E40) was split into two sunspot groups after magnetogram
analysis, with the leader group retaining the Region 1479 number,
and the trailer group being numbered Region 1482 (N14E51). Three new
regions were also numbered today, Region 1481 (S10E61), Region 1483
(S27E51) and Region 1484 (N10E75).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days
(14 - 16 May) as Region 1476 continues to rotate towards the west
limb of the solar disk.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated periods at minor storm levels observed at high latitudes.
Measurements, by the ACE spacecraft, indicate the waning effects of
the latest coronal hole high speed stream, as solar wind speeds
decreased from 600 km/s to around 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods on day one (14 May), as a CME, observed leaving the solar
disk on 12 May, is forecasted to become geoeffective. Most of the
mass of this CME event is expected to miss Earth, thus quiet to
unsettled levels with a chance of active levels, are also expected
on day two (15 May). As effects of the CME wane, a return to quiet
to unsettled levels is expected on day three (16 May).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 14 Maykuni 16 May
| Klass M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 13 May 131 Prognoositud 14 May-16 May 130/130/130 90 päeva keskmine 13 May 114
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 12 May 008/010 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 13 May 010/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 007/010-014/012-006/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 14 May kuni 16 May
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 25% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 10% | 01% |
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