Vaata reede, 8 juuni 2012 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2012 Jun 08 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 160 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 08 Jun 2012IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1494 (S18W33) produced
a C7 flare at 08/0307Z. The flare was accompanied by Type II and
Type IV radio emissions at 08/0305Z and 08/0308Z, respectively. A
CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 08/0443Z emerging from the
southern hemisphere. Analysis of LASCO and STEREO COR2 coronagraph
imagery indicated a speed of approximately 380 km/s. A subsequent
model run suggested a glancing blow at earth late on June 12th.
Filament eruptions were observed from the NE limb at 08/1645Z in SDO
304 imagery and at 08/1756Z in LASCO C2. A second eruption near
N10E50 was observed in SDO 304 imagery at 08/1706Z. The first
eruption is not expected to be geoeffective; the second is being
evaluted.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class event for the next three days
(09-11 June).
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 07-2100Z kuni 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. Data
from the ACE spacecraft suggested the possible arrival of the CME
from 05 June around 08/0800Z. A couple of unsettled periods
followed, but most of the day was quiet. Wind speed at ACE declined
throughout the period and ended the day near 500 km/s. The Bz
component of the IMF was generally neutral to slightly negative for
the first half of the day, and generally positive for the last half.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (09 June). The CME from 06
June is expected to arrive on day 2 (10 June), bringing unsettled
conditions with a chance for an isolated active period through day 3
(11 June).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 09 Junkuni 11 Jun
| Klass M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 08 Jun 124 Prognoositud 09 Jun-11 Jun 125/125/130 90 päeva keskmine 08 Jun 117
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 07 Jun 008/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 08 Jun 009/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 006/005-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 09 Jun kuni 11 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 30% | 30% |
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