Viendo archivo del sábado, 15 agosto 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Aug 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 227 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Aug 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
15/1236Z from Region 2401 (S11E22). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Aug,
17 Aug, 18 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 550 km/s at 15/1433Z. Total IMF reached 27 nT at 15/0815Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -21 nT at 15/1008Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 192
pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (17 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (18 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Aug a 18 Aug
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Aug 089 Previsto 16 Aug-18 Aug 085/085/085 Media de 90 Días 15 Aug 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Aug 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Aug 027/045 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 015/020-010/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Aug a 18 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 40% | 20% |
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