Viendo archivo del domingo, 19 julio 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Jul 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 200 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Jul 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/1040Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 358 km/s at
19/0132Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7861 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (21 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (22 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Jul a 22 Jul
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Jul 099 Previsto 20 Jul-22 Jul 100/100/105 Media de 90 Días 19 Jul 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Jul 005/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 010/010-004/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Jul a 22 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 20% | 20% |
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