Viendo archivo del domingo, 16 agosto 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Aug 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 228 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Aug 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Aug,
18 Aug, 19 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 637 km/s at 16/0736Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 15/2319Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 16/0642Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1325
pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (18 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (19
Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Aug a 19 Aug
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Aug 086 Previsto 17 Aug-19 Aug 085/085/085 Media de 90 Días 16 Aug 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Aug 024/040 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Aug 024/035 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 018/020-012/015-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Aug a 19 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
< < Ir a la visión general diaria
Últimas noticias
viernes, 17 mayo 2024
Let's compare! Halloween 2003 VS May 2024 Solar Storms!
viernes, 17 mayo 2024
Coronal mass ejection impact, New website feature!
miércoles, 15 mayo 2024
More X-flares!
Últimos mensajes del foro
AR3664 1107Latest SC25 Predictions 134May 2024 Geomagnetic Storms from AR 13664 (2) 324Incoming Active Regions 388Red Auroras 18
Más temasApoye a SpaceWeatherLive.com!
Mucha gente viene a SpaceWeatherLive para seguir la actividad del Sol o previsión de aurora, pero con esta cantidad de tráfico se incrementan los costos del servidor. ¡Considere hacer una donación si disfruta de SpaceWeatherLive para que podamos mantener el sitio web en línea!
Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 2024/05/15 | X2.9 |
| Último evento clase M | 2024/05/19 | M1.6 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 2024/05/17 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 2022/06/08 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| abril 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| mayo 2024 | 155.9 +19.4 |
| Last 30 days | 163.2 +40.8 |