Viendo archivo del viernes, 11 septiembre 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Sep 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 254 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Sep 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep, 14 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a
peak speed of 674 km/s at 11/1132Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 11/0731Z.
The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 11/0731Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 1274 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (12 Sep), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (13 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (14 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Sep a 14 Sep
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Sep 093 Previsto 12 Sep-14 Sep 100/105/110 Media de 90 Días 11 Sep 107
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Sep 010/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Sep 036/061 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 028/040-019/025-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Sep a 14 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 50% | 40% |
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