Viendo archivo del viernes, 31 agosto 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Aug 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 244 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Aug 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1560 (N04E09), 1563
(S24E58) and newly numbered 1564 (S13E70) each produced low-level C
flares during the period. Region 1564 rotated around the east limb
overnight and is considered a Dao-beta spot group. Region 1560 grew
in areal coverage and became more magnetically complex with a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. A C8 flare associated with a
large filament eruption near S06E20 occurred at 31/2043Z associated
with Type II (estimated speed 515 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. A
CME first became visible on SDO/AIA 304 imagery at approximately
1945Z. Further evaluation will be conducted as SOHO LASCO imagery
becomes available.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate activity throughout the forecast period
(01-03 September).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for the next three days (01-03 September).
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Sep a 03 Sep
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Aug 131 Previsto 01 Sep-03 Sep 130/130/130 Media de 90 Días 31 Aug 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Aug 004/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Aug 002/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Sep a 03 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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