Viendo archivo del jueves, 30 agosto 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Aug 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 243 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Aug 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. A region around the east
limb produced an M1 flare at 1211Z along with multiple C-class
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.
New Regions 1562 (S16E56) and 1563 (S25E71) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 31 August and 1 September with
a chance for minor to major storm levels at high latitudes. Activity
is expected to return to mostly quiet levels on 2 September with a
slight chance for active to minor storm levels at high latitudes.
Increased activity on days 1 and 2 is due to a coronal hole high
speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Aug a 02 Sep
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Aug 128 Previsto 31 Aug-02 Sep 130/130/130 Media de 90 Días 30 Aug 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Aug 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Aug 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 010/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Aug a 02 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 05% | 05% |
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