Viendo archivo del sábado, 1 septiembre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Sep 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 245 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Sep 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare in the past
24 hours was a C3/SF flare at 0039Z from Region 1554 (N15W94).
Region 1560 (N03W05) remains the largest on the disk and the most
complex with a magnetic configuration of a beta-gamma.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. A
greater than 10 MeV proton event, associated with the disappearing
filament on 31 August, began at 01/1335Z, reached a maximum flux of
41 pfu at 1925Z, and remained above threshold at the time of this
report.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 2 September. Activity is
expected to increase to minor storm levels with a chance for major
storm levels on 3 September with the arrival of the 31 August CME.
High latitudes have a chance of reaching severe storm levels on 3
September. On day 3 (4 September), activity is expected to decrease
to mostly unsettled conditions as CME effects wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Sep a 04 Sep
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 80% | 60% | 30% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Sep 146 Previsto 02 Sep-04 Sep 145/140/140 Media de 90 Días 01 Sep 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Aug 003/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Sep 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 007/018-020/030-014/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Sep a 04 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 40% | 10% |
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