Viendo archivo del domingo, 2 septiembre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Sep 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 246 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Sep 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period
was a C5/SN flare at 1810Z from Region 1560 (N03W17). This region
remains the largest and most magnetically complex with a beta-gamma
configuration. Two potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed
with estimated speeds of 570 and 530 km/s, and a Type IV radio sweep
occurred at 0435Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an M-flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet to unsettled levels. A
greater than 10 MeV proton event, associated with the disappearing
filament on 31 August, began at 01/1335Z, reached a maximum flux of
60 pfu at 02/0850Z, and is currently above threshold at the time of
this report.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to increase to minor storm levels with a chance for major
storm levels on 3 September with the arrival of the 31 August CME,
and high latitudes have a chance of reaching severe storm levels. On
days 2 and 3 (4-5 September), activity is expected to decrease to
mostly unsettled conditions with continuing CME effects. The two
CMEs observed today along with a coronal hole high speed stream are
expected to arrive late on day 3 (5 September).
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Sep a 05 Sep
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 75% | 40% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Sep 142 Previsto 03 Sep-05 Sep 140/140/140 Media de 90 Días 02 Sep 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Sep 008/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Sep 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 020/030-014/015-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Sep a 05 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 10% | 20% |
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