Viendo archivo del sábado, 29 septiembre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Sep 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 273 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Sep 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Numerous weak
C-class events were observed during the past 24 hours, mostly from
Regions 1575 (N07W73) and 1577 (N09W54). New Region 1583 (N13W75)
emerged on the disk as a simple bipolar group. No significant
changes were observed from the remainder of the disk and limb. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity all three days
of the forecast period (30 September - 02 October).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE satellite
measurements indicated a steady decline in wind speed from about 325
km/s to near 275 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 3 nT. At about
29/0100Z, a solar sector boundary crossing from a negative (toward)
to a positive (away) orientation was observed.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels through about midday on
day one (30 September). By late on day one, active levels with a
chance for minor to major storm periods are expected due to the
arrival of the Earth-directed CME observed early on 28 September.
On day two (01 October), continued minor to major storm conditions
are expected early in the day, decreasing to mostly quiet to
unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active periods as
effects from the CME wane. Predominately quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on day three (02 October).
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Sep a 02 Oct
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Sep 136 Previsto 30 Sep-02 Oct 135/130/125 Media de 90 Días 29 Sep 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Sep 002/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Sep 004/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 018/035-018/025-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Sep a 02 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 70% | 20% |
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