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Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 May 07 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 128 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 May 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. Even though Region 1476 (N10E48) is the largest, 810 Millionths, and most magnetically complex, Fkc/beta-gamma; todays only M-class event came from the sunspot cluster Region 1470 (S15W57) and Region 1471 (S19W50). This sunspot complex produced an M1/1n x-ray event at 07/1431Z. Multiple discrete radio frequency bursts were associated with this event, as well as a 240 sfu Tenflare and a Type IV radio sweep. These characteristics, as well as COR2 imagery from the STEREO A spacecraft suggest an Earth directed CME. Initial analysis suggests only a weak disturbance of the Earths magnetic field. Earlier in the day around 07/0400Z, another CME was observed in STEREO A imagery but after analysis, it was determined to not have an Earth-directed component. Region 1476 continues to grow in size and magnetic complexity as it rotates further onto the solar disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels for the next three days (08 - 10 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 May) as a solar sector boundary crossing is expected, as well as possible effects from a weak CME, observed leaving the solar disk on 05 May. Quiet to unsettled with a chance for active levels are expected on day two (09 May), as a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) moves into a geoeffective position. Quiet to active levels with a chance for minor storm levels are expected on day three (10 May) as effect from the CH HSS continue with the possible arrival of todays CME.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 May a 10 May
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       07 May 122
  Previsto   08 May-10 May  120/120/120
  Media de 90 Días        07 May 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 06 May  005/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 07 May  004/004
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  007/007-009/012-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 May a 10 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%35%40%
Tormenta Menor01%10%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%45%40%
Tormenta Menor01%20%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%10%

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