Viendo archivo del domingo, 6 mayo 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 May 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 127 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 May 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours with three impulsive, low level M-class events observed
from Region 1476 (N10E63). The largest event was an M1/1n at
06/1747Z. Region 1476 has rotated further into view and is now
classified as a Fhi/beta-gamma sunspot group with an area of around
760 millionths. Three filament eruptions were also observed in the
past 24 hours, but none appear to have an earthward directed
component. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (07 - 09 May) as
Region 1476 continues to evolve and rotate further onto the visible
disk.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the past 24
hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07
- 08 May) due to a solar sector boundary crossing and the possible
arrival of a CME, observed lifting off the solar disk on 05 May. A
slight increase to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for an
active period is expected on day three (09 May) as a corotating
interactive region, in front of a high speed solar wind stream, is
expected to arrive here at Earth.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 May a 09 May
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 May 117 Previsto 07 May-09 May 115/115/115 Media de 90 Días 06 May 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 May 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 May 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 007/008-007/008-009/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 May a 09 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 45% |
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