Viendo archivo del martes, 8 mayo 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 May 08 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 129 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 May 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1476 (N11E35) is the most complex region on the
visible disk, has grown to become a Fkc/beta-gamma-delta
configuration, and has an area of approximately 940 Millionths. It
also produced the largest flare, a M1/1f at 08/1308Z, as well as
several C-class flares. COR2 imagery from the STEREO-A spacecraft
indicated two weak Earth-directed CMEs that are not expected to have
significant impacts upon arrival.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (09 - 11 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (09 May). Day two (10
May) is expected to be at quiet to active levels with a chance for
minor storm periods due to the effects of the Coronal Hole High
Speed Stream (CH HSS) and the anticipated arrival of the CME that
departed the solar disk on 07 May. Day three (11 May) is expected
to return to quiet to unsettled levels as the effects of the CH HSS
begin to wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 May a 11 May
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 08 May 123 Previsto 09 May-11 May 120/115/115 Media de 90 Días 08 May 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 07 May 004/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 08 May 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May 009/012-015/018-013/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 May a 11 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 50% | 35% |
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