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Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 May 02 2201 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 122 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 May 2010

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Only weak B-class activity was observed. Three new regions were numbered during the period. Regions 1065 (S32W16) and 1066 (S27E16) formed on the disk as single, unipolar spot groups. Region 1067 (N23E56) rotated on the disk as a bi-polar spot group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. C-class activity is likely from Region 1067.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels during the period. Activity was quiet through about 1100Z when levels increased to active to minor storming at middle latitudes, with major storm periods observed at high latitudes. At about 0900Z, observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated increases in temperature, density and wind velocity, while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field showed strong negative incursions to -20 nT. Wind speeds gradually increased from about 375 km/s to near 700 km/s by 1645Z. Thereafter, wind speeds leveled out to about 650 km/s, and remained so through the balance of the period. These signatures were indicative of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with isolated minor storm periods at middle latitudes for days one and two (03 - 04 May). During the same period, high latitudes should expect similar conditions with isolated major storm periods. This activity is due to a geoeffective, recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream. By day three (05 May), activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods at middle latitudes, while high latitudes could see isolated minor storm periods.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 May a 05 May
Clase M05%05%05%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       02 May 080
  Previsto   03 May-05 May  082/084/086
  Media de 90 Días        02 May 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 01 May  001/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 02 May  020/030
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  020/035-020/035-015/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 May a 05 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%40%25%
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo45%45%30%
Tormenta Menor20%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%01%

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