Viendo archivo del lunes, 3 mayo 2010
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 May 03 2201 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 123 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 May 2010IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Only weak B-class
activity was observed. All regions appear stable. New Region 1068
(S19E76) was numbered during the period. LASCO C2 imagery observed
a slow-moving CME lifting off the SW limb at 02/2108Z. The CME is
not expected to become geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels. There is a chance for an isolated
C-class event from Region 1067 (N23E38).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels at
all latitudes, while high latitudes observed brief periods of major
storm conditions early in the period. Wind velocities remained high
during the period averaging about 675 km/s and peaking near 750 km/s
between 03/1200-1400Z. This activity is a result of a large,
recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately unsettled to active levels, with
isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes, for days one and two
(04 - 05 May). This activity is due to the persistence of the
coronal hole high speed wind stream. By day three (06 May),
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled as the
coronal hole high speed stream rotates out of a geoeffective
position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 May a 06 May
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 May 080 Previsto 04 May-06 May 082/084/086 Media de 90 Días 03 May 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 May 018/039 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 May 020/035 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 020/028-015/022-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 May a 06 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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