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Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Apr 05 2201 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 095 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Apr 2010

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted of a few low-level B-class events, primarily from newly emerging Region 1061 (N14W11). Region 1061 is a small D-type sunspot group. Region 1060 (N25E45) was quiet and stable and is a small C-type sunspot group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (06-08 April). There is, however a chance for an isolated C-class event from Region 1061.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels during the past 24 hours. Conditions were initially quiet to unsettled, but increased to active levels after 0300Z, and increased further to major to severe storm levels between 0900-1200Z. The increase in activity followed a strong shock observed at the ACE spacecraft at 0756Z which led to a sudden impulse at Earth at 0826Z (observed to be 38 nT at the Boulder magnetometer). Numerous high-latitude stations reported severe storm levels during the interval as did several mid-latitude stations in the nighttime sectors. Activity declined to active to major storm levels from 1200-1800Z and declined further to mostly unsettled levels from 1800-2100Z. Solar wind observations showed elevated solar wind velocity behind the shock with speeds between 720-800 km/s with fairly strong Bz (peak negative values around -15 nT). Solar wind speed and magnetic field observations showed a decreasing trend during the last 4-5 hours of the interval. The most probable source for the disturbance is the halo CME that was observed on 03 April at 0954Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active during the early part of the first day (06 April) due to persistent effects from the current disturbance. In addition, another increase to unsettled levels with a chance for active periods is expected late in the day and continuing through the second day (07 April) due to the onset of a high speed stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. Activity levels are expected to decline to mostly unsettled levels on the third day (08 April).
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Apr a 08 Apr
Clase M01%01%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       05 Apr 079
  Previsto   06 Apr-08 Apr  082/085/085
  Media de 90 Días        05 Apr 083
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 04 Apr  011/013
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 05 Apr  025/025
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  015/017-012/012-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Apr a 08 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%35%20%
Tormenta Menor20%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%40%25%
Tormenta Menor25%30%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%01%

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