Viendo archivo del jueves, 11 febrero 2010
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Feb 11 2201 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 042 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Feb 2010IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1045 (N22W52) is
beginning to show signs of decay. Region 1046 (N23E15) intensified
during the period, producing a C1.1/sf flare at 11/1941Z, the
largest event of the period. A well defined, recurrent, southern
extension coronal hole is nearing 20E.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
However, there is a chance for an isolated M-class event during the
period (12-14 February).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a single period of
unsettled conditions observed between 06-09Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled on day 1 (12 February). A decrease to quiet
with a slight chance for unsettled conditions on days 2 and 3 (13-14
February) is expected.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Feb a 14 Feb
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Feb 094 Previsto 12 Feb-14 Feb 094/095/095 Media de 90 Días 11 Feb 079
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Feb 001/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Feb 005/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Feb a 14 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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