Viendo archivo del miércoles, 10 febrero 2010
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Feb 10 2201 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 041 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Feb 2010IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Todays activity consisted of 3
C-class events, as well as numerous B-class events. Region 1045
(N22W39) produced the largest event of the day, a C3.7 flare at
10/1514Z, but is beginning to show signs of decay. Region 1046
(N24E28) and Region 1047 (S18E43) remain stable and quiet. There is
a recurrent, southern hemisphere coronal hole near the center disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
predominately low. However, there is a chance for an isolated
M-class flare for the next 3 days (11-13 February).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled on day 1 (11 February). An increase to
unsettled with a slight chance for active conditions is expected on
day 2 (12 February), and unsettled conditions are expected on day 3
(13 February). The activity is forecast as a response to CME
activity on 6 February.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Feb a 13 Feb
| Clase M | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Feb 091 Previsto 11 Feb-13 Feb 090/090/092 Media de 90 Días 10 Feb 078
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Feb 001/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Feb 003/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 010/010-012/012-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Feb a 13 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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