Viendo archivo del viernes, 15 enero 2010
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Jan 15 2201 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 015 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Jan 2010IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1040 (N29W41) produced two long duration flares, a
B8.1 flare 14/2139Z and a C1.3 flare at 15/0841Z. Region 1040 has
remained stable and is classified as a Eki-beta with 16 spots.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low to low levels for the next 24 hours. B-class flares and
isolated C-class flares are expected. There is a slight chance for
isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for day one (16 January). On day
two (17 January), quiet to unsettled levels are expected due to the
arrival of a coronal hole high-speed stream. On day three (18
January), quiet levels are expected to return as the effects
subside.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Jan a 18 Jan
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Jan 085 Previsto 16 Jan-18 Jan 085/084/082 Media de 90 Días 15 Jan 076
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Jan 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Jan 003/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 005/005-007/007-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Jan a 18 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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