Viendo archivo del sábado, 19 diciembre 2009
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2009 Dec 19 2201 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 353 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Dec 2009IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was low by virtue of a single C2.9/Sf at
10/0014Z from Region 1035 (N30W56). Since this event, only B-class
x-ray activity, with some weak, low frequency radio emissions have
been observed from this region. Over the past 24 hours, the region
decayed, both in areal coverage and spot number, but retained its
beta magnetic configuration. Two new regions were numbered this
period. Region 1036 (S29W19) emerged on the disk as a 3-spot beta
group, while Region 1037 (N18E54) rotated onto the disk as a 2-spot
beta group. Both regions have been quiet and stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days. There is a slight chance for an isolated
M-class event from Region 1035.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods on day one (20 December). This activity is in response to
the expected arrival of the CME observed on 16 December. Days two
and three (21 - 22 December) will see mostly quiet conditions.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Dec a 22 Dec
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Dec 082 Previsto 20 Dec-22 Dec 082/082/080 Media de 90 Días 19 Dec 074
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Dec 002/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Dec 002/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 015/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Dec a 22 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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