Viendo archivo del viernes, 28 septiembre 2007
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2007 Sep 28 2203 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 271 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Sep 2007IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. Newly numbered Region 971 (N03E07) emerged on
disk and is a small, C-type sunspot group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active from 27/2100Z through
28/1200Z. Conditions were quiet from 1200-1800Z but returned to
unsettled to active from 1800-2100Z. Real-time solar wind
measurements from ACE showed a steady increase in solar wind speed
from about 27/1700Z through about 28/0900Z. After 0900Z solar wind
speed began to decline, but a second increase in speed and total
field began around 1500Z and has continued through forecast issue
time 28/2100Z. Both increases show signatures consistent with a
coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with a chance for minor storm periods
at high latitudes for the first day (29 September) due to the
continuation of the high speed stream. Activity is expected to
decrease to mostly unsettled levels for the second day (30
September) and should be quiet to unsettled on the third day (01
October).
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Sep a 01 Oct
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Sep 067 Previsto 29 Sep-01 Oct 067/067/067 Media de 90 Días 28 Sep 069
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Sep 010/019 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Sep 015/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 020/025-010/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Sep a 01 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 01% |
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