Viendo archivo del jueves, 27 septiembre 2007
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2007 Sep 27 2203 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 270 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Sep 2007IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was initially quiet. However, a weak shock was
seen at ACE at 1054Z, followed by an increase in magnetic field
strength and density as well as a small increase in velocity. There
were some extended intervals of southward Bz and as a result there
was a period of minor to major storm level activity from 1500-1800Z.
Conditions declined to active to minor storm levels for remainder of
the period (1800-2100Z). Although the observations are not yet
conclusive the disturbance appears to be from a transient structure
in the solar wind, rather than from a recurrent structure. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods for the
first day (28 September) due to the anticipated onset of a high
speed stream from a coronal hole. Activity should strengthen on the
second day (29 September) to predominantly active levels with a
chance for minor storm periods at high latitudes. Conditions should
decline to predominantly unsettled levels on the third day (30
September).
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Sep a 30 Sep
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Sep 067 Previsto 28 Sep-30 Sep 067/067/067 Media de 90 Días 27 Sep 069
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Sep 002/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Sep 010/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 010/015-020/025-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Sep a 30 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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