Viendo archivo del sábado, 1 septiembre 2007
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2007 Sep 01 2203 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 244 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Sep 2007IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. New Region 970 (S06W07) was assigned today
and is a small, C-type sunspot group. A filament eruption on the
west limb was observed beginning at about 31/2000Z in Stereo-A EUVI
images and was later seen as a limb CME in the Stereo-A COR1 and
COR2 coronagraphs just after 01/0000Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was an
isolated active period from 0900-1200Z. Real-time solar wind
measurements at the ACE spacecraft show a slow increase in speed
over the last 24 hours, from initial values around 420 km/s to about
520 km/s by forecast issue time. The increase is consistent with a
high speed stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels from 31/2100-31/2115 but was dropped below 1000 PFU for the
remainder of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours (02
September) as the high speed solar wind stream is expected to
continue. Conditions should subside to mostly unsettled for the
second day (03 September), and should be quiet to unsettled by the
third day (04 September).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Sep a 04 Sep
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Sep 071 Previsto 02 Sep-04 Sep 071/070/070 Media de 90 Días 01 Sep 071
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Aug 007/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Sep 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 013/020-010/012-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Sep a 04 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 01% |
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