Viendo archivo del miércoles, 10 mayo 2006
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 May 10 2216 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 130 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 May 2006IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 882 (S12W70) showed
no change this period, and produced no significant activity. Region
880 (S09W17), the only other region with sunspots on the visible
disk, was stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The large recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream is now rotating into a geoeffective position.
Enhancements were observed in both the solar wind plasma and
interplanetary magnetic field measurements. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. A recurrent
coronal hole is rotating into a geoeffective position. Expect active
to minor storm periods on 11 and 12 May. Isolated major storm
periods are possible on both days. Quiet to unsettled levels, with
occasional active periods are expected on 13 May.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 May a 13 May
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 May 078 Previsto 11 May-13 May 075/075/075 Media de 90 Días 10 May 082
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 May 002/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 May 005/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 025/030-020/025-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 May a 13 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 10% |
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