Viendo archivo del jueves, 11 mayo 2006
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 May 11 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 131 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 May 2006IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 882 (S12W82)
remains the most magnetically complex sunspot group on the visible
desk but has exhibited no growth or activity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active. The large
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream has rotated into a
geoeffective position. Consequently, the solar wind speed increased
to approximately 600 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Expect
unsettled to active conditions with isolated minor storm periods on
12 May due to the coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on 13 and 14 May.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 May a 14 May
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 May 076 Previsto 12 May-14 May 075/075/075 Media de 90 Días 11 May 082
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 May 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 May 018/030 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 020/025-010/012-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 May a 14 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 05% |
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