Viendo archivo del viernes, 14 abril 2006
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Apr 14 2203 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 104 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Apr 2006IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity remained very low. No significant
flares occurred during the past 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. An
interval of major to severe storm conditions was observed at the
Boulder magnetometer between 14/0600Z and 1200Z. The interplanetary
magnetic field strengthened, and the Z-component rotated smoothly
from 13/1500Z through 14/1200Z from 17 nT through a maximum negative
value of -15 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged from approximately 480
km/s to 570 km/s. The unusual solar wind conditions appear to be
consistent with a corotating interaction region that may have been
complicated by the presence of transient flow. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active. Isolated periods of minor to
major storm conditions are possible on 15-16 April due to a coronal
hole high speed stream. Predominantly unsettled conditions will
return on 17 April.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Apr a 17 Apr
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Apr 079 Previsto 15 Apr-17 Apr 080/080/080 Media de 90 Días 14 Apr 080
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Apr 009/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Apr 032/040 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 025/030-020/025-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Apr a 17 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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