Viendo archivo del viernes, 2 septiembre 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Sep 02 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 245 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Sep 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 806 produced a
long duration B4 flare at 01/2321 UTC with an associated CME first
seen in LASCO imagery at 01/2354 UTC. This CME was a complex full
halo event, with the biggest contribution believed to have its
origin on the far side of the sun.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for C-class activity from Region 805.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Minor
storming occurred between 0600 - 0900 UTC and again between 1600 -
1800 UTC after the arrival of a transient shock at approximately
02/1340 UTC from the CME on 31 August. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active levels with a chance for isolated minor
storming on 02 September as the transient flow passes. The
geomagnetic field should be at unsettled levels on 03 September.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 04 September due to
the arrival of the CME associated with the long duration B4 flare.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Sep a 05 Sep
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Sep 077 Previsto 03 Sep-05 Sep 075/080/085 Media de 90 Días 02 Sep 093
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Sep 011/021 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Sep 018/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 020/025-008/012-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Sep a 05 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 05% | 05% |
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