Viendo archivo del jueves, 1 septiembre 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Sep 01 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 244 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Sep 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 806 (S16E07)
continues to decay and is now an Alpha class magnetic group. Region
803 (N10W26) is now a plage region without spots. A large, bright
full halo CME first seen in LASCO imagery at 31/2230 UTC was
determined to have occurred on the far side of the sun.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class event
from region 806.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. Minor
to major storm periods occurred between 31/2100 to 01/0600 UTC in
response to the corotating interaction region that became
geoeffective after 31/1000 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels on 2 September.
Isolated major storming is possible due to the arrival of the full
halo CME associated with the long duration C2 flare on 31 August.
Predominantly active conditions are expected on 3 September,
decreasing to unsettled on 4 September.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Sep a 04 Sep
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Sep 079 Previsto 02 Sep-04 Sep 080/080/085 Media de 90 Días 01 Sep 093
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Aug 017/036 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Sep 022/030 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 025/030-020/025-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Sep a 04 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 15% | 05% |
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