Viendo archivo del miércoles, 31 agosto 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Aug 31 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 243 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Aug 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 803 (N11W13)
produced a long duration C2 x-ray event that occurred at 31/1151Z.
This event was followed by a full halo CME that was first observed
at 31/1100Z by LASCO imagery. Region 803 continues to show decay
and is down to 20 millionths of sunspot area. Region 806 (S17E23)
was limited to B-class flare activity and has shown slight decay in
sunspot coverage. The magnetic gamma structure remains intact
although it has weakened since yesterday. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The
elevated conditions ensued following a sustained southward Bz
(ranging between -10 and -20 nT) which began just after 31/1000Z.
This activity is believed to be in response to a corotating
interaction region. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. A coronal hole may
keep conditions elevated throughout the period. Isolated major
storm conditions may be possible on 2 September due to the effects
of the full halo CME from the long duration C2 x-ray event that
occurred today.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Sep a 03 Sep
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Aug 084 Previsto 01 Sep-03 Sep 080/080/080 Media de 90 Días 31 Aug 094
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Aug 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Aug 018/032 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 015/020-025/030-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Sep a 03 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 45% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 20% | 15% |
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