Viendo archivo del sábado, 3 septiembre 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Sep 03 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 246 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Sep 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 805 (S11W17)
produced a B6 flare at 03/0410 UTC. There are no other regions with
spots on the visible disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for a C-class event from region 805.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels.
Geomagnetic storming occurred between 03/0000 - 0600 UTC after a
period of sustained southward Bz. Solar wind speed showed a steady
decline with initial values around 675 km/s to day-end values around
550 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field at ACE declined
throughout the period, ending the day at about 5 nT. The greater
than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 04 September.
Unsettled to active conditions with a chance for minor storming is
expected on 05 September due to the possible effects of transient
flow from the CME on 01 September. Quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected on 06 September.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Sep a 06 Sep
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Sep 074 Previsto 04 Sep-06 Sep 075/080/080 Media de 90 Días 03 Sep 093
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Sep 024/033 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Sep 022/032 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 008/015-012/015-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Sep a 06 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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