Viendo archivo del domingo, 4 septiembre 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Sep 04 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 247 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Sep 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 803 (N10W65) produced a
long duration C2 flare at 1506 UTC. This event was associated with
the eruption of a large filament. Region 805 (S11W30) remains the
only region with spots on the visible disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance of a C-class event from Region 805.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Minor storming occurred between 0600 - 1200 UTC as Bz fluctuated
between +/- 5 nT and the solar wind speed increased from about 550
km/s to 750 km/s. At time of issue, solar wind speed was about 625
km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 05 September, with a
chance for isolated minor storming due to the effects of the CME
associated with the long duration B4 flare on 01 September.
Predominantly unsettled conditions are expected on 06 September.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 07 September.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Sep a 07 Sep
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Sep 075 Previsto 05 Sep-07 Sep 080/080/085 Media de 90 Días 04 Sep 093
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Sep 020/032 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Sep 017/030 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 012/015-008/012-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Sep a 07 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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