Viendo archivo del lunes, 11 abril 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Apr 11 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 101 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Apr 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity was low due to a C1 x-ray event at 0253
UTC from Region 751 (S06W90). The remainder of today's activity
consisted of occasional B-class events.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (12-14 April).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet from the beginning of the period
until around 1500 UTC, after which conditions became unsettled to
active. Solar wind data show a sector boundary crossing at about
1440 UTC, followed by a gradual increase in solar wind velocity and
enhanced interplanetary magnetic field. This is consistent with
solar observations which indicate the presence of a favorably
positioned coronal hole just a few degrees behind a solar magnetic
polarity inversion line. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next two days (12-13 April) as
the high speed stream from the coronal hole should continue to drive
activity. There is a chance for isolated minor storm periods during
this time as well. Conditions are expected to subside to unsettled
with occasional active periods for the third day (14 April).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Apr a 14 Apr
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Apr 088 Previsto 12 Apr-14 Apr 085/085/085 Media de 90 Días 11 Apr 096
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Apr 002/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Apr 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 020/025-020/025-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Apr a 14 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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