Viendo archivo del martes, 15 marzo 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Mar 15 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 074 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Mar 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 741 (N10W80)
produced a C2 flare at 0647 UTC and is rotating off the limb.
Region 742 (S05W39) developed into a Beta-Gamma magnetic class
group, but has thus far only produced B-class x-ray flares. LASCO
imagery showed a CME off the SE limb at approximately 1548 UTC.
There is no obvious front side source for this CME.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance of an M-class flare from Region 741 or 742.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed remains at nominal
levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for 16 March. Mostly unsettled
with a chance for active periods are expected on 17 March due to a
high speed stream from a coronal hole. Predominantly unsettled
should resume on 18 March.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Mar a 18 Mar
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Mar 108 Previsto 16 Mar-18 Mar 105/100/100 Media de 90 Días 15 Mar 098
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Mar 012/021 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Mar 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 008/010-012/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Mar a 18 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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