Viendo archivo del martes, 12 abril 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Apr 12 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 102 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Apr 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity was low due to a C2/Sf flare at 1721 UTC
from newly assigned Region 752 (N00E76). There were additional
B-class events during the past 24 hours and all of these were from
752 as well. At this time Region 752 is a small, D-type sunspot
region.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (13-15 April).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels.
Conditions were at mostly active to minor storm levels during the
past 24 hours with a major storm interval at high latitudes from
0000-0300 UTC. The enhanced activity is being driven by a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next 36 hours (13 April to 14
April 1200 UTC) due to persistent coronal hole effects. Conditions
should begin to decline partway through the 14th and should be quiet
to unsettled by the 3rd day (15th).
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Apr a 15 Apr
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Apr 085 Previsto 13 Apr-15 Apr 085/085/085 Media de 90 Días 12 Apr 096
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Apr 006/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Apr 020/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 020/025-012/018-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Apr a 15 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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