Viendo archivo del miércoles, 10 marzo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Mar 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 070 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Mar 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 570(S14E20)
produced several B-class flares. The region grew slightly in size
and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 571
(S14W13) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 570 may produce occassional C-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels.
Solar wind speed has been steady at about 675 km/s from the effects
of a geoeffective coronal hole.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions, with isolated
minor storm conditions possible on 11 March and early into 12 March.
Activity should decrease to quiet and unsettled levels on 13 March
as the coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Mar a 13 Mar
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Mar 113 Previsto 11 Mar-13 Mar 115/115/110 Media de 90 Días 10 Mar 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Mar 011/021 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Mar 025/045 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 020/030-018/020-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Mar a 13 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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