Viendo archivo del jueves, 11 marzo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Mar 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 071 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Mar 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 570 (S13E07)
produced minor flare activity, including a C1.3/Sf at 11/0215 UTC.
Region 570 maintained its size, but increased in magnetic complexity
to a beta-gamma-delta configuration. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 570 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions. Earth's magnetic field continues to be under the
influence of a geoeffective coronal hole with associated high speed
solar wind. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high
levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions, with isolated
minor storming possible, on 12-13 March. Activity should decrease
on 14 March as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Mar a 14 Mar
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Mar 113 Previsto 12 Mar-14 Mar 110/110/100 Media de 90 Días 11 Mar 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Mar 036/040 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Mar 020/045 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 018/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Mar a 14 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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