Viendo archivo del viernes, 12 marzo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Mar 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 072 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Mar 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 570 (S14W05) produced an
impulsive C3/Sf at 12/0237Z with minor centimetric radio bursts. The
large leading sunspot cluster in this region began to fragment this
period and the trailing spots have decayed considerably; however, a
weak delta configuration is still evident. A new bipolar sunspot
group formed north and center on the disk and was numbered as Region
572 (N19W05). New Region 573 (S14E71) was also numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Occasional C-class activity is expected from Region
570 with a slight chance of an M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A high
speed stream associated with a large transequatorial coronal hole
is responsible for the current disturbance. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active with isolated minor storm
periods possible. The coronal hole high speed stream is expected to
continue through 13 March. Mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated
active periods are expected on 14 and 15 March as the high speed
stream subsides.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Mar a 15 Mar
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Mar 108 Previsto 13 Mar-15 Mar 105/100/100 Media de 90 Días 12 Mar 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Mar 017/026 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Mar 022/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 015/020-010/012-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Mar a 15 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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