Viendo archivo del jueves, 12 febrero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Feb 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 043 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Feb 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. X-ray flux remains
steady at background levels, with very little fluxuation. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. Regions 551 (S08W68) and 554 (S10E12) may produce C-class
flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions. Solar wind speed increased to around 700 km/s during
the period, and has been steady for the past 12 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
for a brief period today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm conditions through 13
February, under the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high
speed solar wind stream. A decrease in geomagnetic activity is
expected 14 and 15 February as the coronal hole rotates out of
geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Feb a 15 Feb
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Feb 112 Previsto 13 Feb-15 Feb 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 12 Feb 121
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Feb 012/026 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Feb 012/026 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 015/020-015/020-012/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Feb a 15 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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